January 2007 NPD Predictions

[Kwaad]

TheSource said: Kwaad - I think Sony will catch up some in March. Sony should outsell Nintendo and Microsoft in Europe in March. However, this will be shortlived. Barring a price drop, 360 and Wii hold their own in Japan, selling roughly 1.5-2 times what Sony sells until games like Metal Gear Solid 4 come out. In Japan, Microsoft remains largely irrelevant, and at least short term (till say...June..more likely later), Nintendo has the software to outsell Sony in Japan 3 or 4 to 1. However, because Microsoft has a rapidly shrinking market in Japan, Microsoft's worldwide marketshare will decrease throughout the year more than Sony's. If Sony is to come out on top, eventually, it will not happen at the end of this year for three reasons. 1) Wii will have a 1-2.5 million lead at least Europe by the time PS3 comes out. 360 will be like 3-5 million ahead in Europe by that point. 2) Wii will outsell PS3 in Japan this year because it will be cheaper, because of games like DDR, Smash Brothers, Wii Sports, Galaxy, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Mario Party 8, Dragon Quest. I'm sure many of Sony's new IP's will do quite well in the West over time. But Japan seems to be growing tired of less social orientated games. Just look at what sold last gen - Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Smash Brothers, Soccer and Baseball games, Mario Party, Dynasty Warriors, Mario, Mario Kart. Although some of these titles will decline in sales, excercise and physical 'training' games have enormous potential in Japan for Wii. At this point Sony needs Kojima, Namco, and Capcom to make PS3 RPGS so Sony remains above niche/360 levels in Japan... 3) Many consumers see PS3 and 360 as roughly the same product, just with a few different sounding bells and whistles. Remember the consumer confusions over 'box shaped consoles' last gen(Gamecube and Xbox)?, Nintendo found a method of differentiation. Sony and Microsoft are relying on abstract ideas about media for differentiation. I do believe the differences will become apparent in later 08' and 09'. But for now, expect Wii to outsell PS3 at rates of 1.5:1 to 4:1...depending on the market.

I have no idea what the japan numbers will look like. Sony is haveing a horrendus launch. And their not getting support. (most likely the lack of software) NA If the PS3 starts outselling the Wii in March. There is a decent chance it will outsell 360 by the end of the year. There is also a good chance it would outsell the Wii. EU The PS3 launches in March. Enough said. Europe is the worlds biggest game market right now. And Shows biggest support for adult orientated high end equipment. (PS3). Most people I know in europe... plan on getting a PS3. (that do the console thing) If March is as good a month as I think it will be for sony. I can see upwards of 5million PS3 worldwide. June would be another big month. And I see PS3 hitting possibly even 6million by the end of July. Come the round end of 2007. I say at least 12million PS3. (funny as that is... isnt that Sonys predictions too?) I see Wii doing... worldwide. about 12million as well. However most of their consoles in japan + close second/third in US/EU. I see all 3 consoles haveing worldwide... about 12-15million. I dont see 360 sales picking up. But I'm not gonna count it out till it starts looseing software. (If sony sells as well as I think they will... I'm quite sure Alot of the PS2 exclusive developers... will jump on the PS3 exclusive bandwagon. I think their doing multiplatform at the moment, because of the high budget+low console count.) But the next 6 months is the most imporant time for PS3/Wii. PS3 is blowing 360 out of the water. Wii is blowing everything out of the water. But because of it's abstract system... every one is looking and saying. "Well... It has potential to be a killer machine... and it has potential... to be a failure." If Sales drop on the Wii like they do with all nintendo consoles since N64... I doubt Wii will get too many 3rd party exclusives. I'm still saying Wii will impress me if it sells 50million/worldwide. (end of it's life)