I don't know why this thread has been digged out, but it is very interesting to see these predictions now. Let me comment them and see how likely they are now, almost a year later.
Chrizum said:
Here are 9 of my Nintendo sales predictions. Discuss!
1) The period from september 2008 to februari 2010 will be the peak of the Wii software and hardware wise. Good third party releases in this time period will sell really well (500k+) This one is definitely wrong. The Wii has seen a low period lately, and it was a lot worse than the 07/08 season was. Maybe Rol's prediction that the peak comes later will come true, but currently, I doubt it.
2) Examples of games selling at least 500k (or even a million) in this period (within a year from release):
Star Wars Force Unleashed (million seller) Standing at 1.34 M, so this was true
SimCity Creator Standing at 370k, I doubt this one will reach gold
Call of Duty World at War (million seller) True, with current sales of 1.21 M
The Conduit (million seller) Too early to tell, but with current sales of 180k, it will be hard
MadWorld Currently standing at 260k. Maybe in the very long run
House of the Dead Overkill A little more likely than the above with current sales of 330k
Star Wars Clone Wars No sales in the database. What's up with that one?
Quantum of Solace With current sales of 480k, this one is already within the margin of error
Lego Batman Even almost platinum with current sales of 940k
Sonic Unleashed (million seller) Within the margin of error with current sales of 970k
Sonic and the Black Knight Currently only standing at 320k. Still selling some thousand units a week in others though
Spyborgs Not yet released
Final Fantasy CC Crystal Bearers (million seller) Not yet released. Should come true though
Monster Hunter 3 (million seller) Almost a given with Japanese launch sales and a western release announced
My Sims Kingdom Has well reached gold with current sales of 810k
Spore (million seller) I don't think this still exists a a Wii game... Does it?
Rayman Raving Rabids TV Party (million seller) Easily reached platinum with current sales of 1.50 M
Castlevania Judgment Only reached 80k. This is really the only prediction that I don't think it ever had a chance to come true, looking at the sales of real Castlevania games it should be clear that a spinoff is never going to reach gold...
Skate It The database has it at 170k. Others sales are missing though, but it would still not be enough for gold
Shaun White Snowboarding Even made platinum with current sales of 1.25 M
Popular peripheral based music games (Guitar Hero, Rock Band, Samba de Amigo)
Popular EA and Konami Sports games (Fifa, Madden, Pro Evolution Socccer)
3) Call of Duty World at War will at least sell 750k units within a year. The Conduit will at least sell 800k units within a year. CoD did it, the Conduit will have a hard time, but I give you this one.
4) Week ending april 25th 2009: No More Heroes will have sold 450k, Zack & Wiki will break 500k. I'm not going to check the dates, since NMH is only at 440k and Z&W even only at 370k
5) Week ending may 23th 2009: Wii will have sold over 50 million. Off by one week. It was standing at 49'837'785 units in the worldwide charts of that week. I don't know if adjustments are taken into consideration for that number though.
6) Wii will get a price drop between november 2009 and may 2010 Very likely, maybe even a bit earlier.
7) The week ending february 6th 2010: Wii will have sold between 70 and 77 million units. Still possible
8) The Wii will stay a viable platform to release main titles on at least until january 2013. At the very best, the Wii is here to stat until january 2018. Not yet judgeable, but the 2018 bit is very hard to imagine now.
9) The Wii will have sold at the absolute minimum a 100 million units at the time it stopped selling. I'm positive it won't ever reach 200 million. My prediction is that the Wii will have sold about 150 million units at the time it stops selling, which will be early 2016. Numbers are possible, time frame seems out of range.
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So out of your nine predictions, 3 is the only one that seems spot on. 6 to 9 are not judgeable yet though, and only 1 and 4 were clearly wrong.
Out of your 20 software predictions (not counting the undefined ones at the end), we can tell yet that 9 are correct. 3 games (Including Spore) haven't been released yet, 4 could still reach their goals, but it seems unlikely, and 4 others seem unable to reach their goals.
All in all I have to say that these predictions were pretty good, especially considering that we were much more optimistic back in September 2008. Keep up the good work, Chrizum!
