The next generation will be very interesting (competition-wise)

[Mr Khan]

Squilliam said:

NJ5 said:

As interesting as this generation's console war has been and continues to be, I believe the next one will be even more interesting for the following reasons:

1- Sony and Microsoft will have to decide how much importance they give to motion controls. Do they give it the same level of importance as Nintendo did, or will be a secondary thing?

2- Hardware power... difficult decisions here as well. Nintendo could make the biggest leap among the three console makers, giving some gamers an additional big reason to upgrade. Microsoft and Sony will hardly make a big leap graphics-wise, due to hardware and software development cost.

3- Development costs... will they continue to be high (or even higher as Ubisoft's CEO said), or will developers be less ambitious due to the low profits in this generation?

4- Finally... will any of the three surprise with a totally new control system, or will it just be different combinations of classical and motion controls?

So many questions, and a high possibility of a close fight among the three companies. I think we're in for an interesting few years before (rumors, reveals etc) and after the next generation starts.

 

1. It goes far beyond that. Its also 'To 3d or not to 3d' from the start of the generation and all the implications that has for the rest of the generation which would also dictate software goals and hardware choices.

One thing you didn't mention is hardware identity. What is a next generation console trying to achieve? Is it still a media centre? Is it a computer system with a different interface? How important will things like education be in leveraging the consoles power? Also what devices will it interlink into?

2. Hardware performance? Perhaps not quite that, but instead thermal performance. I.E. Its not how big the chips are, but how much heat they produce. I think the new metric is as much perf per watt as per mm^2. I think they will target a certain thermal parameter and build the console to fit, be it 100W or 150W or even just 50W.

3. Development costs? Well the jump from this generation assets to the next generation shouldn't be too hard. I think the challege was to jump to this generation and not the jump from this generation. A lot of the assets produced now are likely good enough for the next generation, for example I doubt that Forza 4 will force them to remodel the cars.

4. Probably going back to hardware identity and the question of 3d really.

3D would be more radically overshooting the market than HD was. I really don't think we're anywhere near that kind of mass-market penetration.

 

I think that Natal is going to essentially be a Beta for what Microsoft intends to do next generation, so if you're looking at Microsoft's future, i would follow very closely what they do with Natal. How much support they give it, how much support 3rd parties give it, and how mandatory they choose to make it, that's going to be a forerunner of their next console, which will use Natal tech heavily... or not.

With Nintendo, the peak into the future comes from the DSi. Watch the services and functionality they add to the DSi, and you'll see where they intend to go, at least in terms of software services. I think, ultimately, that they'll have a more advanced version of the Wiimote there from day one, and experiment with more radical schemes as they go along, with a requisite leap in power.

I think that the Wand is just going to be another peripheral for the Eye this generation, and like Natal will just run a Beta for more developed control schemes further along, and will foreshadow what Sony is willing to do