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Interesting question, but the better question would be how many games do you see yourself buying during the life time of the PS3 and how many do you see yourself playing throughout that entire life cycle?

Game installs and saves would be the bare minimum stored on a console, but once you step up to using it as a media player/hub, there really isn't such a thing as "too much space."

On PC, I'm eventually going to have to step up to a 1TB drive, just to keep my Steam purchases installed on my boot drive, even though it is not used to store all my media.