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Plausible and probable are two different things, of course, and the distinction is worth making.

Plausible says, "yes, they could afford a pricecut this Fall".

Probable (in my mind) says, "bide time and hold off until 2010 for an even more impactful cut".

Personally, I expect bundles and a refreshment of the SKUs available (e.g. Elite only for limited editions, changes to the Pro capacity, or whatever, y'know), but no pricecut - Natal launched with a pricecut Fall 2010?