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Looks official:

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/splinter-cell-delayed-until-2009-10

http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/27/splinter-cell-conviction-delayed-until-march-quarter/

http://kotaku.com/5028679/splinter-cell-conviction-delayed

Quoting some more reputable source to add weight.

This is getting out of hand! With the added price hike of the PC version of Modern Warfare 2 (Which I am now skipping) this has because the lamest holiday lineup yet. There's less than a handful of game for me to collect :(