@bigdom -
I have to disagree with you that MW2 appeals to casual players. COD players are some the most hardcore players on any system right now. You have to be hardcore to play the same game daily for hundreds (if not thousands) of hours. A lot of these crazy guys memorize every map, drop points, every little nuance of advantage they can find. I like COD, but there are a ton of people who are fanatical about that game.
In regards to the poll: Seems to me the question is what will be the most popular this holiday. Who will create the biggest buzz this holiday season. Now, being most popular on the internet is different than selling the most copies in the real world. There have been plenty "biggest of E3" games that didn't exactly sell a massive amount of copies.
As far as sales go, I don't think anything will touch MW2 this holiday season. I'm willing to bet the PS3 version of MW2 will outsell Uncharted 2. NSMB is also the other top title this season, it will sell very well, but it will also have to compete with Wii Sports Resort.
WSR is a bit of an unknown quantity for me right now. On one hand I know that this game will sell like crazy, but will it scare off a lot of casuals when they find out they will need to buy a bunch of WM+ add-ons for every controller?
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