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I think nintendo is the one that might go 3rd party. I even think they is a high chance they only do handhelds next generation and become 3rd party publishers on home consoles.
why?

1)they have way bigger software R&D than hardware
2)They can create hardware and Internet servers and service as powerful and technology than competitor
3)They would the most influential and profitable third parties publishers with so many mainstream franchises
4) They are very small company, and the risk and investment the next generation will have will just be too big
(But they will for sure make handhelds, since the investment required for those aren't a big. So are the risk)

Surprisingly enough, Sony is the company that is most certain to be here next generation with consoles, even if some common folk cant see that.
Explanation:

1)Sony is a HARDWARE company, the biggest high-end electronics company in the world. And console is hardware.
2)They already have cell developed and shrunk, which they will use on the next console. Was always their plan to use cell because they could "glue" 4+ cells together due to its kind of architecture. They will save millions on manufacturing because of that, since they already have factory's doing. They only used cell architecture because of that, even if was unusual to developers. Since by 2012 all engines and developers will be used with multi-core processor, they will be able harvest the effort and sacrifice they did this generation with the expensive cell.