Squilliam on 24 July 2009
I don't think your reasoning is correct, sorry. 
- Its likely that live subscription numbers are higher than 10M, but the renewal pattern is probably closer to Q2 > Q1 > Q3 > Q4 in terms of renewals as the sales of hardware tends to accellerate after summer.
- You can't account for revenue from 1st party games without accounting for the cost of their development.
- Accessory sales are worth a lot, though im not sure how much its worth.
- Live purchases generally give them a 30% margin, did you use that or the total?
- If they were paying Nvidia $20 per Premium SKU/HDD they would have better backwards compatibility. I doubt this is the case from the performance of the BC and from the fact that paying $20 to Nvidia per Premium SKU would be foolish. They didn't include wireless because they didn't believe it was worth the cost and data shows it isn't used very much. Also under that scenario they would not be making any money on the HDDs in stores, especially the 60GB pack.
- The Xbox 360 and PS2 are completely different systems. That $150 PS2 was really $170 and it was far simpler hardware than the current Xbox 360 design. It also used proprietary I.P. whilst the Xbox 360 uses IBM Cpus and ATI GPUs.
Its a cool idea, but personally I would simply attempt to seperate the Xbox 360 unit results from the EDD by running the numbers. If 46% of non gaming revenue = $460M then 100% of non Xbox 360 revenue would be $1B. Doing it this way yields very consistant numbers between the quarters/yearly results.
Tease.
