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areseris on 17 October 2007
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jman8 said:
areseris said:
superchunk said:

Let's see, MGS games sold historically,

1 = 5.59m
2 = 5.56m
3 = 3.96m

@http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=metal+gear&console=&publisher=&sort=Total

those are impressive numbers... but they're based on consoles with an extremely huge install base (100Million+ for both ps2 and ps1).

there are currently only 5M PS3s in people's homes... even if you double it (and that's being generous) and say that there will be 10M by the time the game comes out, do you really think MGS4 will even approach MGS3 numbers?

I'm not saying the game will flop... I'm sure it will do very well... but it will be difficult to match MGS3 in sales if there are only 10M PS3s out there in people's homes. That's less then 10% of the install based that MGS3 had to work with.


MGS2 did not have the benefit of a 100 million PS2 install base on day 1. There were about 10 million PS2s in people's hands when MGS2 came out in Nov. '01, just one year after the launch of the PS2. By the time MGS4 comes out, there will be about 8-10 million PS3s in people's hands. You can also argue that the PS2's library was far better than the PS3's at the launch point of MGS2 and MGS4 respectively. By the time MGS2 came out, huge titles like Twisted Metal Black and Gran Turismo 3 were already out and FFX was but 2 months from being released. So, is it really that outrageous for MGS4, the final MGS, to sell similarly to MGS2?


True, but won't the PS3 have quality titles by the time MGS4 is released:
Devil May Cry 4
Gran Theft Auto 4
Call of Duty 4
The Orange Box
Gran Turismo Prolouge
Assassin's Creed
HAZE
Unreal Tournament 3
Ninja Gaiden Stigma
Oblivion

These are all games that have (or will) score 9/10 review ratings

plus there are a few decent titles that have a chance at making a splash.

Dark Sector
Army of Two
Mercenaries 2
Turok
Condemned 2

by the time MGS4 is released, there will be other quality titles on the system.  That's a way better lineup then what MGS2 originally had to deal with.  The PS2 only had 3 big quality titles by the time MGS2 was released... MGS4 will have a lot of competition.  Again, I'm not trying to make it seem doom and gloom for MGS4... but I do think there are factors (limited install base & competition) that can slow it down a bit.  Then again, maybe all these great titles help push more PS3 sales... except that only two or three of them are Sony exclusives.