I think Halo 3 expectations are way too high... The game sold phenomenally well... roughly a 50% install base which is really quite phenomenal. The sales of the game, relative to the hardware are most impressive. If the same 50% attach rate was applied to an install base in the U.S. of twice the size, the numbers would truly be astounding... Short of more hardware sold, like you said, Halo 3 HAS to drop off as not every single person is a Halo 3 fan... I suspect Halo 3 will have Gears of War type legs and continue to sell well.
If the 360 has the kind of hardware sales this holiday that it had last Christmas (and I don't see any reason why it can't given it had to compete with two launches from other consoles), Halo 3 could possibly push another couple of million copies out by year end without much trouble....








