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Microsoft has a real chance given the lineup, bundles, lower price. Many of the titles will definitely incentive more consumers this holiday season. I expect the sales to be better. The only question is will they be good enough. I think Mass Effect, and the trickle down titles just might get it there.

The Wii I am not sure I have to see if it comes out of its funk in Japan. I want some confirmation that the market in Japan has not developed a love it and leave it mentality. I am cautious about the Wii especially given that it thwarts analysis. Solid AAA games sell poorly compared to party games. Metroid losing to Mario Party. However there is a solid party game in the lineup in Mario and Sonic. So That might spur the sales over a million for a week. Just not comfortable with what is moving this console is it the novelty, the price, or the first party potential. The first can wear off. The second is under assault, the third might actually do well.

The PS3 has less then a snowballs chance in hell. The price is still higher, there is no innovation, and there are few highly anticipated software titles. Were I uncertain about what is moving the Wii. I am completely dumb founded by what moves the PS3. Further more a poor year is not something to inspire consumer confidence.

Wii has a really solid week in the mix. One that will see Galaxy in North America and the Olympics in Japan. Should do a million as long as consumers sustain the current demand.

Xbox 360 has a decent chance the week of Black Friday. Mass Effect is going to move consoles that week, and due to the lineup prior to that the 360 could make that even without Japan. Perhaps the lower price will keep fewer consumers awahouy with the value of bundles. Realistically though Microsoft really should consider another price cut to get into prime real estate. The pro is still a hundred dollars off of the Wii in North America. Were they to cut the difference in half the casual consumer would have a choice on their hands.

PS3 has no perfect storm moment short of slashing prices again. There just isn't anything to work with here. The only sales pitch is a high definition player, and the machine is not the cheapest in the market.