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L4D2 will be seriously hurt by MW2, the fact that it's only been a year since L4D1, and, honestly, L4D2 doesn't look like it adds a ton to L4D1, so I'm not really sure if I, let alone more casual buyers, would feel compelled to buy it.

Assassin's Creed, I really don't know. I'm still amazed at the insane sales for a new IP. I can't remember if AC1 had a lot of hype, or was more of a sleeper hit that relied on word of mouth. I'm sure that will make a difference. AC1 also had the benefit of releasing when there wasn't as many good games for the HD systems, while there is now.