The Wii wil never get the kind of third party support that the PS2 had.

[Reasonable]

I doubt it will.

1) This gen, much more than last, there are a lot of former PC developers like Infinity Ward, Epic, etc. really pushing product to consoles - and it looks like those developers are HD console focused. Not all of course, but a fair few.

2) The Wii represented a major shift due to the Wiimote - while Nintendo and certain other developers seem comfortable designing games for the Wii interface many others clearly don't - so while the motion controls have been a huge part of Wii's success, they've also been a barrier for certain 3rd party support

3) Nintendo seem to have the most popular IP and titles on the console, which further worries many 3rd party developers, who seem to see the PS3 and the 360 in particular as less risky (not saying they're right or wrong, just that's clear how some feel).

4) I guess this seems like a variation on 1) but the stark difference in specification between the Wii and the HD consoles (coupled with HD TV adoption) plays to a more split market as well. It's not by accident that I have my Wii hooked up to a 32" CRT TV in one room with my PS3 hooked up to an HD TV in another.