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Sony lost all it's money on the 500$ ps3 at launch which costed only 30$ less to make than the 600$ one.

Which both cost like 800$ to make.

PS3 probably breaks even on one ps3, and one extra controller.

Chances are, they are doing lots of surveys and studies to find out what the demand for a slim is. If they release the slim at 400, they can drop the price of all the phats by spreading the savings along each of the remaining phats +10$profit or so. Do that until phats are gone, and then sell the slim for even less due to production increases.