| NJ5 said: historically it has always been a lagging indicator Historically most recessions are caused by too much inventory, not by credit problems and unhealthy consumer finances. I mean frankly you are kind of late to the party on this one. If I'm late to the party, why do so many people disagree? I'm not saying I'm a visionary or even an expert on the economy... I just take the best data and most informed opinions I can find and try to make sense from them. The people who were right about this recession so far are the people who are saying there's still ways to go to fix the problems. That, and the fact that their opinions make perfect sense is what leads me to have this opinion.
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Nobody is claiming there isn't a way to go to fix the problems, but that doesn't mean those problems would prevent an economy from starting to recover. Do you honestly think ANY economy has no problems whatsoever even during GOOD economic times? That's just not how economies work. Even an economy that is booming can have major problems. China's exports are dropping like a rock (dropped 21% last month), yet it is moving along like a freight train.
I really don't want to take the time to dig up quarterly graphs about unemployment in the Great Depression, so we will just agree to disagree on the first point.
On the second point, I don't think they disagree with the fact that there will be credit problems along the way, and that the amount of publicly and privately held debt is a problem. They just don't think it is severe enough to prevent recovery from beginning. I mean not all problems have to be fixed before an economy starts recovering, and certain areas can compensate for others. I just think you are acting like you have discovered something that people didn't know about already.
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
