NJ5 on 11 July 2009
historically it has always been a lagging indicator
Historically most recessions are caused by too much inventory, not by credit problems and unhealthy consumer finances.
I mean frankly you are kind of late to the party on this one.
If I'm late to the party, why do so many people disagree? I'm not saying I'm a visionary or even an expert on the economy... I just take the best data and most informed opinions I can find and try to make sense from them. The people who were right about this recession so far are the people who are saying there's still ways to go to fix the problems. That, and the fact that their opinions make perfect sense is what leads me to have this opinion.
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