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areseris said:
superchunk said:

Let's see, MGS games sold historically,

1 = 5.59m
2 = 5.56m
3 = 3.96m

@http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=metal+gear&console=&publisher=&sort=Total

those are impressive numbers... but they're based on consoles with an extremely huge install base (100Million+ for both ps2 and ps1).

there are currently only 5M PS3s in people's homes... even if you double it (and that's being generous) and say that there will be 10M by the time the game comes out, do you really think MGS4 will even approach MGS3 numbers?

I'm not saying the game will flop... I'm sure it will do very well... but it will be difficult to match MGS3 in sales if there are only 10M PS3s out there in people's homes.  That's less then 10% of the install based that MGS3 had to work with.


 

It's a different situation this time out though. MGS4 is coming out really early in the console's life.   Also, this is a console that is lacking big games so far.  It isn't hard to imagine a higher attach rate for this game, I think.

"Human equality is a contingent fact of history. Equality is not true by definition; it is neither an ethical principle (though equal treatment may be) nor a statement about norms of social action. It just worked out that way. A hundred different and plausible scenarios for human history would have yielded other results (and moral dilemmas of enormous magnitude). They didn't happen." - Stephen Jay Gould

Systems I currently own (in order of preference): PS2, SNES, Gamecube, Xbox 360, Genesis, Nintendo DS, PSX, XBOX, Wii, PS3,  Atari 5200, Turbo-Grafx 16, NES, Gameboy, Game Gear, 32X.