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superchunk said:

Let's see, MGS games sold historically,

1 = 5.59m
2 = 5.56m
3 = 3.96m

@http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=metal+gear&console=&publisher=&sort=Total

those are impressive numbers... but they're based on consoles with an extremely huge install base (100Million+ for both ps2 and ps1).

there are currently only 5M PS3s in people's homes... even if you double it (and that's being generous) and say that there will be 10M by the time the game comes out, do you really think MGS4 will even approach MGS3 numbers?

I'm not saying the game will flop... I'm sure it will do very well... but it will be difficult to match MGS3 in sales if there are only 10M PS3s out there in people's homes.  That's less then 10% of the install based that MGS3 had to work with.