Why the recession is not gonna be over anytime soon

[Avinash_Tyagi]

NJ5 said:

Avinash_Tyagi said:

NJ5 said:

Avinash_Tyagi said:
People are still eating out, going on vacation and buying cars (not American, but who can blame them), as well as dong the forms of entertainment that you mentioned, yes everything is depressed and people are looking for sales and good deals, but that is expected, it wouldn't be a recession if that wasn't happening, however it shows, that the economy isn't in a massive retraction that would indicate that things are going to get much worse, it just shows people are being cautious but not panicking.

It seems you're assuming that a severe contraction needs to be severe right from the start. No one is saying the sky is falling and there's misery everywhere, that's not what a prolonged and severe recession means.

 

No i'm not assuming anything of the sort, i'm saying to get to the stage that you seem to believe it will get to, things need to get a lot worse, I don't see evidence of that happening, I see us being at about this level for another 6 to 12 months before things start to turn upwards.

In the Great Depression, things didn't get miserable overnight. I'm sure many people were also looking for sales and good deals in the beginning, middle and end of the depression.

Frankly you haven't brought much relevant data to the discussion, other than saying that "things aren't so bad yet". Well I agree with that, but it doesn't support your assertion that they won't get worse.

 

By 1931, little over a year into the Depression unemployment had risen to around 15%, in this recession at over 18 months we are less than 10%, things went downhill fast in the Depression you don't see such a steep fall in this recession

So far you haven't shown anything that indicates that things are going to get worse, the onus is on you to show data that things are going to get worse, see I don't have to show a lot of data, my point is supported in current events and history, its up to you to show how this is a false bottom and how things are going to collpase in the next few months into some new depression.