Why the recession is not gonna be over anytime soon

[NJ5]

It seems like you should be making the opposite argument. If anything, that means a stimulus package was more necessary than we thought.

That's only true if it gets proven that the stimulus package is the best way to deal with the economic downturn... and that's not proven.

And unemployment is currently around 9.5-9.7%, which means that you are already seeing unemployment reach a bottom.

Why does it mean it's a bottom?

I know that U3 unemployment only increased slightly in the last month, but that's more due to the way the measure is calculated than due to a real improvement in the situation.

Why do I say this? Because the USA job losses in June were not very different from the previous months (around half a million), yet the unemployment rate only increased marginally. The reason is that U3 unemployment doesn't include people who stopped looking for a job and other discouraged workers.

If you want a one way ticket to a depression, allowing the banking sector to collapse is the best thing you could possibly do.

However, the US is repeating Japan's early mistakes when dealing with a banking crisis. Shifting debt around or hiding it under the carpet. That was a one way ticket to a decade of deflation over there.