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It all depends on how the PS3 performs over the coming 2-3 years and how the Wii and 360 perform as well.

IMO, Nintendo have anticipated the next arrival of a Microsoft console around 2010/11 and I wouldn't be surprised to see a new Nintendo system on the shelves around this time as well.

Sony on the other hand have put too much in the PS3 for them to introduce a new system in such a short timespan.  Also they will not want to be 2nd or 3rd to release a new system as well, so they will potentially be caught in the middle again.

There is no doubts that Sony are preparing a PS4 at this moment, but I reckon they will rethink their strategy to introduce a better price to the market.  But what will Sony do?  And when will the PS4 arrive?

Well 2014 is a bit far off.  It's 7 years this year to be precise.  Which would mean the PS3 would have effectively been on the market for 7-8 years.  This is a similar timescale to the PS1-PS2 and PS2-PS3, but I just don't know.

One thing is for certain.  The PS3 needs to grab 2nd spot and quickly.  If it can get 2nd spot off the 360 by the end of 2009 and grow considerably from there, then I can see Sony sticking with the PS3 for a long time.  But if it is still playing catch come the end of 2009 and is a lot behind the Wii and a bit behind the 360, then very possibly, Sony may introduce their new system early. 



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)