While I agree with him that the recession isn't over and probably wont be for another few moths to half a year, his outlook is a little too pessimistic, his concern is entirely focused on the consumer aspect of the issue, but he forgets that the great depression wasn't solved by letting all of the bad debt work itself out and consumer spending coming back. No in fact it wasn't until the government shouldered massive debt for its time as a percentage of GDP and began a massive public works project (helping to crush the Axis powers), that it was able to come out of the Depression. Letting the banks fail at the early stages of the Depression was one of the reasons it lasted so long because it caused even greater retractions in consumption and investment.
Now while the truth is that he's right that we will have to work out this debt at some point, doing it now will not recover the economy, but rather send it into a downward spiral. GDP is the sum of Consumption, Investment, Government expenditures, and Net Exports, so since consumption and investment are down, government spending has to step up to cover the gap.
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
