The Wiis peak, have we reached it only 50M sales/2.5 years after release?

[Squilliam]

scottie said:

Squilliam said:

scottie said:

 

Hardware sales were not boosted much (ie only about doubled) by WSR in Japan because there is an upcoming hardware bundle with MH3 and new colour for the Wii. This is not true worldwide so WSR should have more of an effect when it releases in the West

 

MH3, black wii and hardware bundle will be huge in Japan

 

WF+ will indeed not have too much impact on hardware, but it can't be discounted either

 

NSMB:Wii will have a huge hardware boost, especially in Japan. Compare sales of Galaxy to NSMB:DS. It is not true to say that this is mainly for people who own the Wii

 

Also, the Wii has still not had a price cut. Once it hits the so called magical $200 price point, sales will dramatically increase.

Ok, so you feel that the information is widely deseminated enough to have an effect on the market? Well I guess we can wait and see, as the results will come out soon either way.

Im not discounting WF+ as a complete dud, but I don't feel its significant enough. It seems like even less of an upgrade than something like Halo ODST from what I know of it.

NSMB: I can understand there may be a boost, but is it enough to bring the Wii back to parity with 2008 when Mario Kart, Wii Fit released? Especially after the fact that theres already been a 3d Mario released? 2d on handhelds is the only practical solution to creating a Mario game, whats the draw when people can play a 2D Mario on their handhelds and they are now the preferred platform for gaming in Japan at least?

In the Americas/Europe the Wii is closer to $200 realistically. Every Wii sold today is sold with a single compelling piece of software that most people buying the Wii want. Since most people buy games with their consoles the effective price may be closer to $200 than $250 as comparative consoles from Sony or Microsoft need at least one game purchased or they are effectively useless out the door on their own. Japan is different of course because theres no such bundle, though IIRC the used market is quite big there so the WS titles may be going through a lot of hands.

 

So what hardware sales are you expecting for the week including MH3 launch?

 

Not trying to disparage Halo, but Wii Fit is much bigger than Halo 3. WF+ might even outsell Halo 3 and will certainly outsell ODST.

 

Several things about the NSMB point

Who knows if it'll be enough to bring the Wii back to 2008 levels.

The fact that there is already a 3d mario is irrelevant. That's like saying that GT5 will not have an effect because MGS4 has already been released

2d on handhelds is not the only practical solution. SM64:DS is one of the best (selling) games this generation

The draw is improved graphics, presumably a longer game, 4 player multiplayer, YOSHI! and anythign else that we don't yet know about the game

So you're saying that last Christmas the 360 arcade was effectively $80? (200 - 60 - 60) You and I both know that bundles can't hold a handle to an actual price cut. The Wii could be much cheaper if Nintendo needed to boost hardware sales

I cannot say about the hardware sales specifically for MH3, I was never any good at determining the sales for a specific week im sorry. Im more interested in overall trends and im much better with those than determining sales one week or another.

Yes I grant that Halo 3 < Wii Fit. Wii Fit is a sensation on its own. Are you talking the hardware alone or hardware + software numbers? In anycase if it does outsell Halo it won't be because of the + attached to the title. Wii Fit sales seem synchronous with Wii sales, though now I think about it, with so many copies of Wii Fit selling with Wiis (likely) then an improvement in Wii Fit sales would proportionally increase Wii sales. Thats an interesting causation I hadn't thought of. I will have to ponder that one.

So you think that as Mario Kart winds down in effectiveness NSMB Wii will take its place? Comparatively how do you feel they will perform relative to each other? Whilst im not entirely convinced that NSMB Wii will be another Mario Kart for the Wii, I cannot say that it won't be either.

Regarding the Wii price, what im saying is that effectively a game title which if Japan is anything to go by would have been bought by 50% of Wii owners with the console, considering how well it does in Japan where theres quite a strong used market for games from what I hear is quite significant. The value of the game is not the sticker price, its the massive value people place in the game. A lot of people buy the Wii in whole or part because of Wii Sports. Because the title is so compelling, it does make the Wii effectively cheaper because people can and probably do leave the store with just a Wii without any games. Those Arcade games sucked, Wii Sports does not.