(assuming that it's MW1 quality)
Modern Warfare 2 will win because it deserves to win. It's as simple as that. If we start talking about it winning because of it's name, then we might as well throw out the credibility of all gaming websites and call it a day (some people have already).
If we start claiming this, than I can claim that Fall out 3 took out heaps last year because of the name and the developer, ditto Super Mario Galaxy in 2007. (I know we're discussing shooter of the year, but my point still stands).
As for the other contenders:
Killzone 2 is a good shooter with questionable (depends on the person) gameplay, slapped silly with amazing graphics and ran over a few million times by the hype train. It'll be a contender, but I sincerely hope it doesn't win (it doesn't deserve it. It doesn't have the epic single player that BIoshock 2 will undoubtedly have and it doesn't have the longevity in the MP that Modern Warfare 2 will have).
Bioshock 2. We'll see how the multiplayer elements go, but I think it'll be the best single player shooter experience this year.
Halo ODST. Dark horse in my opinion. Doubt it'll have as big of an impact as main series Halo game does (critically and commercially).
So unless some random outsider comes in and ruins the show, I think MW2 or Bioshock for spots 1 and 2, Killzone 2 a solid 3rd and ODST a distant 4th.
But either way, the game that wins will win because the people running the awards believes it deserves to. The Call of duty title doesn't have anything to do with it (W@W and CoD3 anyone?).
If anything it's because IW made it, but then again, that'll be the same reason it'll turn out to be GoTY contender/winner worthy.







