"Xbox 360 is doomed" threads are back. We have come full circle. PS3 to win this gen confirmed!
On topic:
Your analysis seems quite solid, even when based on an estimate. Microsoft uses smoke and mirrors to market it as an incredibly successful and wanted entertainment object, of course (think Don Mattrick and Aaron Greenberg). But there is no denying that almost 4 years in the market and already at $200/170€ for the entry model, it isn't doing as expected, or hoped.
Also, I believe that if Sony drops the price on the PS3, Microsoft will follow suit if the damage starts being painful. It's throwing the towel as you said, but Microsoft has said numerous times they are in the race to make sure Sony is always behind them. The battle for the entertainment center box in our living rooms, remember? What will come out of this... we will see in the coming months. Front row seats through VG Chartz! ;>
