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Aligning the launches just shows that Nintendo 64 had a ton of momentum early on and then lost it. In the bigger picture, Playstation was doing nicely, N64 challenged it for a few months, but then Sony's big software momentum caused everything to reverse.

That's quite different from the situation we're in now where Playstation 3 has never had any advantage in software or hardware momentum, except maybe for the first few weeks after launch. This is why I believe Blu-ray is the only thing that could propel PS3 to a big lead over Wii or even 360: high-def movie playback is the only area where the competing systems haven't got much momentum. That said, I don't actually think consumers want high-def movies that badly, but I could be wrong.