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A $200 dollar Wii would win, hell, even the current priced Wii (now that that is out of the way).

I think it would be close. If MS hadnt pulled out some quality game releases for the 360's holiday months at E3 I would have been worried. But honestly the 360 current gigantic library of quality titles coupled with an awesome holiday line-up and possible, natal/price cut will keep sales close.