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I think the Natal Sku would win. I'm almost certain on this. However if sony decides to release a sku bundled with their own motion control it will be much closer.

More details are needed for your natal sku scenario. Is it the arcade sku? All skus? The slim ps3 is gonna have a 120gb HD. The type of people who'll flock to these units don't care much about memory but the larger memory can seduce some people. The core players however will choose the larger memory.

How sonys motion control performs is also a big factor.