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I reckon no because:

(a) primarily, a different genre with the Halo branding would get more sales - a TPS with Gears elements or a sandbox with Crackdown elements, for example, would for sure hit 2.5mil.

(b) and... what could you really do new in HW2 that would make it a substantial step forward?

 

This said, however, if Microsoft could get Robot w/ a few MS Game Studios employees to knock out a sequel on a small budget, then it would definitely be worth it, since even an unambitious sequel would break 1mil and thus, on a small budget, be pleasantly profitable.

So, lol, I guess maybe also 'yes' then. Who knows? XD