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Squilliam on 02 July 2009
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wholikeswood said:
Squilliam said:
I would say that Halo 3, Call of Duty MW2 and GTA IV. Halo 3 is definately going to make it, and Call of Duty/GTA IV have a good chance of making it from name recognition and legs alone.

MW2 has a decent chance, but im actually rating COD MW chances higher due to people getting sick of the series and/or staying with older COD games.

GTA IV/V will have a pretty good chance, that name is still massive and the console sales are shooting past 40M so it won't need such a killer attach rate to do it.

100-1 has a pretty good chance since its free!

Like you, I'm more suspicious of MW2's chances than COD4's chances (and as above I don't even think the latter will hit the 10mil mark). It will undoubtedly have a much greater opening week, which will be a huge plus as opening week is more or less all that separates COD4's total from H3's total, but I reckon the standard sequel apathy might settle in such that MW2 only breaks 8mil.

Don't think GTAV will hit 10mil but I guess it's far, far, far, far too early to really say anything on that front. As for IV, I think it will depend on bundling. If MS bundled it this Christmas, perhaps in some sort of deal with Gay Tony (or both DLCs), then I would feel very confident of it breaking 10mil, but I just don't think they'd do that and so I'm not confident of 10mil. The advantage that GTAIV has over COD4 is that GTAIV's successor won't be out until 2011 (date estimation based on analyst Todd Mitchell's comments), so it won't be competing with a new sibling for a while longer whereas MW2 is out this November. I think GTAIV will probably also just break 9mil.

I think MW1 has a great chance of passing 10M because of the boost the series gets when a new one is released at the holiday season. It got a boost last year with COD 5 and other games like Gears 1 got a boost with the release especially if the game gets a pricecut in time for the release of the next game. Its frequently outselling the more recent released Call of Duty 5 and now its so big its just going to keep going, especially with the generation so young as it is.

GTA IV is like the above really it will get a boost from the holidays and it will get a boost when the price is cut. It simply has name recognition on its side and most people walking into a store today will be familiar with the name of the franchise.

Call of Duty MW1 is #9 on the Xbox 360 chart and selling 27k per week. (7.5M total) So before the end of the year it will definately crack 8.5M with a holiday boost.

GTA IV is #24 on the chart and selling 11k per week. (7.1M total) So before the end of the year it should crack 7.8M especially if they release a special edition with the DLC.



Tease.