| Squilliam said: I would say that Halo 3, Call of Duty MW2 and GTA IV. Halo 3 is definately going to make it, and Call of Duty/GTA IV have a good chance of making it from name recognition and legs alone. MW2 has a decent chance, but im actually rating COD MW chances higher due to people getting sick of the series and/or staying with older COD games. GTA IV/V will have a pretty good chance, that name is still massive and the console sales are shooting past 40M so it won't need such a killer attach rate to do it. 100-1 has a pretty good chance since its free!  |
Like you, I'm more suspicious of MW2's chances than COD4's chances (and as above I don't even think the latter will hit the 10mil mark). It will undoubtedly have a much greater opening week, which will be a huge plus as opening week is more or less all that separates COD4's total from H3's total, but I reckon the standard sequel apathy might settle in such that MW2 only breaks 8mil.
Don't think GTAV will hit 10mil but I guess it's far, far, far, far too early to really say anything on that front. As for IV, I think it will depend on bundling. If MS bundled it this Christmas, perhaps in some sort of deal with Gay Tony (or both DLCs), then I would feel very confident of it breaking 10mil, but I just don't think they'd do that and so I'm not confident of 10mil. The advantage that GTAIV has over COD4 is that GTAIV's successor won't be out until 2011 (date estimation based on analyst Todd Mitchell's comments), so it won't be competing with a new sibling for a while longer whereas MW2 is out this November. I think GTAIV will probably also just break 9mil.
