Um, are you forgetting that Sony is not the only company surrounded by rumors? I certainly hope you're not so blind that you don't think MS and Nintendo aren't just sitting there WAITING for a Sony price drop. You know why? Because they have profitable hardware on the market and can not only afford it, but are actually planning on having to do this to counter Sony. Any company who doesn't foresee this and doesn't have a plan of attack to combat it is not going to be in business too long.
I ABSOLUTELY HATE the argument that "everyone who wants a ______ already has one". That is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Please stop using that as analysis. You're basing this theory on all your friends telling you that they'll buy a PS3 after the price drop? That's completely anecdotal and has nothing to do with anything. I have at least 5 friends that want a 360 and don't have one yet (this is not an internet exaggeration, it's actually true). So if we're going to use that as an argument, I guess we'll call it a draw.
Also, about the slim--there are rumors surrounding that one too. For example--there is a possiblity that they will do a feaux price drop on the old units and then make the slim model be the flagship unit at the higher price, which would only be a temporary price drop until the old stock is gone from store shelves. There is also a rumor that the slim is nowhere near hitting the market yet. There is also a rumor that there will still be absolutely no price drop, just a thinner piece of plastic encasing the PS3 so that they can call it a "feature" and charge you the same amount of money. There is also the rumor that if there is a price drop, it will only be $50 and that the 360 Elite model will become the new Pro model at a similar price, which will still be lower than the PS3, and may STILL get a price drop of its own. (that last one is from Ars Technica's mole who is pretty much always spot on.)
The BluRay argument doesn't work for me either. BluRay isn't catching on the way you think it is. Here's a perspective adjuster for you:http://slashdot.org/story/09/06/22/1339213/Blu-ray-Adoption-Soft-More-Still-Own-HD-DVD?from=rss
Pretty sad, huh? But I digress. Digital distribution is eventually going to overtake disc formats save for the hardcore movie collectors, who are the minority. The cable companies have had on demand HD content for years now, and the Xbox 360 is about to have instant-on 1080p on demand movies to supplement the Netflix service. To that I say, "What's BluRay?" (Those of you who like to own movies may disagree with me on that particular point.)
All in all, your theory is mostly wishful thinking. Sony has proven time and time again that they not only tend to over promise and under deliver, but also that there is no magic pill that's suddenly going to catapult them into first place. MGS4 was supposed to do that and it didn't. Little Big Planet was supposed to seal the deal, and it didn't. Killzone 2 was supposed to be the killer app, and it wasn't. Price cuts were supposed to save the day, and they didn't. The last two years were supposed to be "the year of the PS3" and they never even came close. Good for Sony if they can pull even with the 360, or even pass it up, but most analysts agree that this is not going to happen for a few more years.
