How can you argue that Bluray is a standardized format when it's constantly in flux? Do you realize that they have realized numerous format updates since the launch of the first players? Many of the latest movies won't play on the original players because of this. Some studios were so concerned about piracy that they forced the BR coalition to change their standards mid-stream. On the flip side, when someone buys a DVD player, it works with all movies. I still have my first 5-disk carousel DVD player from 1999, and it works great with every single movie. Now THAT is called a standard configuration :)
Thanks for the amazon link, but I hardly think a $700 player is something that people will buy for their kids to watch in the backseat of the minivan. Also, no mainstream car manufacturers offer imbedded BR players in their vehicles. I think I still win on this one :P
As for sales and BR eventually absorbing DVD's, I think you're really stretching it. Most articles I've read imply that BR adoption is FAR behind what anyone predicted, especially after HD-DVD folded.
http://hothardware.com/News/Bluray-Adoption-Still-Sluggish-HDTV-Sales-Up/
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/pubs/Harris_Poll_2009_06_18.pdf
http://www.cringely.com/2009/06/is-blu-ray-a-failure/comment-page-1 /> When Toshiba decided to cut its loses on the HD-DVD format, it wasn't because it was losing to Sony. It had sold more players and more movies. In fact, the above article states that HD-DVD still has a significant lead over BR stand-alone players, which I find fascinating given how long it's been since the BR fanatics declared 'victory'. Anyhow, Toshiba decided to discontinue HD-DVD because they saw the writing on the wall, that people weren't ready for HD conversion. Those that were ready, were also the ones that were adopting digital distribution. The trick is to get to the 'mainstream' market. BR and HD-DVD were both targeting a very niche group, the audio and videophiles who also bought the failed DVD Audio format and the original movie disk, the Laser Disc. The price wasn't coming down fast enough and the regular DVD market remained incredibly strong and thus Toshiba cut their loses. It's hard to compete against $4-5 DVD at Walmart (and good movies no less).
On a technical side, DVD's have a thicker layer of coating to protect the disk (and yes, I know that BR has a 'harder' coating, but it's still extremely thin).
I also like to point to one of my all-time favorite sites, IGN, and their interesting article back in early 2008 titled "Why DVD's Better than Blu-Ray".
http://dvd.ign.com/articles/963/963916p1.html
Their most compelling reasons that DVD is better is that BR is a stopgap measure and that many must-haves simply aren't available yet. (ie: Star Wars & LotR)
BR simply missed its chance to supplant DVDs. With the current adoption rate projected, DVDs will maintain their dominance until either digital downloads take over or until the next best physical medium arrives. I wouldn't count out a new version of HD-DVD coming out in the next few years. Remember, Laser Discs were commonplace in the late 80s and 90s, but never achieved critical mass, due to price mainly (and because they were HUGE). Unless BR comes down to the price of regular DVDs, their market share gains will stall indefinitely. From my understanding, the licensing fees associated with BR are part of the cost problem.
Au Revoir
Hardware is only a means to enjoy great games!
