| Reasonable said:
Good points. I do think this gen will last a little longer than usual, though, mainly driven by the following:
1 - economic downturn - I expect this to add a year or two to the gen as it will likely foster climate of moderation rather than focus on trading up to new versions (I mean in the bigger picture, not the smaller HC who'd trade up to get an even more graphically intense Gears or Metal Gear). Economic downturns tend to focus people on getting more out of what they have and finding more cost effective ways to extend value of investments they've made. 2 - dramatic cost of development driven by HD consoles - I can easily see another Wii in a normal cycle, but not another big HD jump. Developers have been complaining a lot about high cost of development for HD consoles, and while the SDKs are good, clearly another power jump would simply worsen the situation 3 - given 1) and 2) above I expect MS and Sony to instead stick with the current consoles spec, which I'd argue is easily good enough to last and 3 years, and instead expand the systems through extended experiences via Natal and the 'purple wand'. This plays nicely to the idea of 'adding value' to existing investments. Instead of buying a whole new console, controllers, etc. you instead buy less expensive extension tech that dramatically changes what you already have. It also eases pressure on development costs and allows the industry to milk their investments in current tech for longer.
In short, I think Sony and MS are going to go down the route you suggest, reinventing the existing consoles through peripherals and focusing on new gameplay approaches vs hiking graphical power. I think Wii Fit has been a real interesting peripheral this gen, showing how something that genuinely extends the experience (if properly backed by titles) can effectively change the core console offering and drive additional sales and growth via titles specific to that peripheral. MS and Sony's challenge is to avoid what I think of as the EyeToy issue - if they let their new control schemes become low interest peripheral with little support, they'll have failed completely in revitilising their consoles mid gen. But if they get it right, it'll be as though they've launched 360 V2 and PS3 V2 and I'd expect that, coupled with 1) and 2) above, to keep the consoles on the market, viably selling, a lot longer than usual. Nintendo may come out with a new console, but they have better breathing room to do so. However, looking at current sales and the success of Wii Fit I wouldn't be surprised if they make a concious effort to extend Wii lifetime also.
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I support this, and especially point 2)
I think that talking about 5-years long generations as if it was a law of nature is quite unfounded for several reasons:
- there's too poor a history -as in amount of data- to really determine such a number with any confidence. And that's why exceptions abound.
- the context changes way too quickly.
In particular I'm thinking about the developers ecosystem that is what really sells the consoles to the user in the end. Training costs, investments for setup of toolchains and libraries have grown, and with those the time developers need to get up to speed and churn out titles.
Another contextual aspect that brought forth new generations has been the inclusion of previously unavailable features, from online connectivity to CD/DVD playback to internet access. There's hardly such a push right now, when even the BD is not a selling point for the mass public yet.
- diminishing returns from global platform hardware overhaul. Upgrading the hardware to PC-like standards would bring marginal benefits for most users of HD consoles. This was not true in 2005, and even less in 2000, but today encourages evolving platforms instead of clean-cut tech generations.
Connected to this very last point, are we even seeing yet a push from the general public to have whole new platform iterations, barring the tech enthusiasts? I can see many potential markets interested in add-ons, if they're well presented and supported, indeed.
