Blu-Ray to overtake DVD by 2012

[sega4life]

Rpruett said:

sega4life said:

Rpruett said:

sega4life said:

DVD down 13% in 2009

Blu-Ray Not selling as well as expected

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Digital Download / Streaming on the rise...  hmm...

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I've always said this, Blu-Ray will not beat DvD's because of In-vehicle DVD players, Portable DVD players, and Other small handheld devices.

DVD: you can play it in almost every single room in your home, take it in the car/truck for a family trip, or use a program to convert it to your iPod / Zune / Phone.

Blu-Ray: chances are you only have 1 blu-ray player so that's a room you can watch it in, there aren't any In-vehicle or Portable BR players that I know of, and BR PC drives aren't to wide spread, not to mention the programs to convert them to iPod / Zune / Phone aren't as easy as a DVD converter, or well known.

You do realize that when DVD was in it's infancy it didn't have portable devices everywhere right?   You also do realize that Blu-Ray players can play DVDs.  So once the physical Blu-Ray player price drops it's only natural that in order to keep the price relatively high on the portable players they will throw in a Blu-Ray drive.   

What you're saying is like DVD never had a chance to over take VHS because they made TVs that did both.   All that's really doing is delaying the inevitable.  

The time frame of the way things are coming out VHS - DvD what 25 years?  DvD - Blu-Ray 10 years.. by the time Blu-Ray portable is to come out, something better will be out.. and there is already new formats being made..

And it's not the point of what will be out, it's the point of whats out Now.. See I can go into a store like many parents, look at a movie selection and grab a DvD knowing I can play this almost everywhere, if I pick of the Blu-Ray I know I can watch it in A Room, and wait for the day I get more units to play it in...

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There is a huge difference between VHS to DvD and DvD to Blu-ay

See with DvD vs VHS you had allot of +'s to the average consumer: Smaller, last almost forever, skip scenes, no rewind, better picture, widescreen picture ( there was a huge difference in picture).

With DvD vs BluRay you have what the average consumer is not really looking for: Storage, Non compressed Sound, better picture (there is not the huge difference in picture from dvd to br with upscale dvd players)

Again you're looking at reasons why 'today' DVD still is a fine option for most people.  Two years from now things will be drastically different.  Blu-Ray in my opinion will be most likely the last physical format.  It may never see the absolute widespread success the DVD did but it almost certainly will gain over 50% of the market share especially as the price for Blu Ray movies lower and Blu Ray players continue to lower.

Digital Distribution is doing better but is still quite a ways off from mainstream popularity.  Internet speeds are still too slow to make it as viable and useful as it can be.

In 2 years other formats will be out, and will be better.. and BR will Not be 50% of DvD, think of how many people have a DvD player in EVERY Room of there home and how long it took them to get there..

It Will Not happen, it's not opinion, I mean think about it...

Right now, everyone that owns a PC has Digital On Demand, everyone that has Dircetv / Comcast (other country service here) has the option of Digital Service, and with the HIGH amounts of digital support wide spread phones and unites to the home whether it be apple / 360 / PS3 / ( that offer MDD) not to mention 108-p 36- service, and I'm SURE Sony will follow, I mean come on...

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Look at CD's, remember those, "MP3 what? please, I will never download an MP3 thingy, I need the CD in my hand, I need to know I bought something..."

See... see what I did there?.. please tell me the last time you bought that thing they sold in the stores that had music on it?

You can look two years ahead if you want, but by the time a portable device will be out for BR, something else will be out before hand,(yes.. before two years) and will be better, regardless of backing of any company, I mean look at BR, and look at how companies are cutting cost at this time...

For the people that think Sony is the only owner of BR (They are not)

Look at the PS3 and Sony: see sony is trying to bring Blu-ray and at THE SAME TIME trying to bring Digital Download to the people with the PS3 and it will not work..

You can not bring a Movie in 1080p on a disc for $20.00 and then bring the same movie to watch for $5.00, (or what ever they charge for the movie, I know it's cheaper then the disc)..  if you own a Mortgage, Car payment, Insurance, kids, you know how cost can be everything, and we see that now, as people are actually starting to think at this point and time during a recession..

And I'm sorry, but... DD is not a "Ways off of mainstream popularity".. I mean come on, look at the numbers..

PS3, 360, Netflix, Apple, all have record or on the Up* downloads..

On-Demand is at a all time high..

it's not a fanboy thing, it's reality

If a New Format doesn't kill BR it will be DD..

Look at CD's <-------