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That's been my general line of thinking for a few years now. MS was in the game primarily to hinder Blu-Ray while working with their own digital distribution models behind the scenes.

HD DVD never had much of a chance, given the industry wide support of Blu-Ray, and it wasn't until MS stepped into the fray on the side of Toshiba with iHD, VC-1, and other things that Warner and the like hopped on board. MS is the primary reason why HD DVD matured enough to become a full fledged format. Despite this, they never fully backed the format. They were just stringing Toshiba along, in my opinion.