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Pretty much.

It's not like the Wii sells because it has accurate controls or precision or the games have hardcore gameplay. It's because they get you up off your ass.

Wii Fit sells because the board is a gimmick, Mario Kart sells because it's arcadey and comes bundled with a wheel, Wii Play is bundled with extra controllers and Wii Sports comes free with the system.

Look at how SMG and SSB:B sold, the games where accuracy and control mattered... about as well as the Halos and Gears of Wars and CoDS.

Natal might bring some interesting ideas for hardcore games like Milo, but fundementally its purpose is the same as the Wiimote. A gimmick to sell casuals on the system, but would ultimately be detrimental to hardcore games.