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blu ray is going to win, but it will never be as huge as video/dvd. Too many alternatives have come up. Im streaming all my movies with the popcornhour, now I realize that might not work for everybody, but you'd be suprised at how many people can use usenet and torrent networks these days.

In the end I see 3 big parties: legal hd streaming/download services like netflix and xbox live, illegal downloadable content played on networked media tanks and other (mobile) mediaplayers and blu ray. The last one will be the biggest in 3 years from now, then streaming/downloads will take over after about 5-7 years.