For the 3rd party developer marketplace? If a company with the muscle and history of Id Software was having problems in dealing with publisher, I think it's pretty obvious that's it is going to be very difficult for this market to thrive. Sure, you'll get new developer shops starting up, but they are probably going attach themselves exclusively to a big name publisher, or a console. Bungie just when independent, and there was a lot of talk of them doing other stuff, but they are working on Halo Reach…Epic is somewhat independent, due to the success of it’s Unreal Engine, but not many others will have the capability to compete for resources and talent to work on project, not directly tied to a publisher.
http://kotaku.com/5302139/id-why-we-sold-to-zenimax
"One of the problems lately, Carmack told Kotaku, is that id just wasn't a good fit with big publishers these days. "As we were shopping Rage and Doom and upcoming stuff, talking about all of that, we were getting a pretty consistent line from all the publishers," he said. "They were willing to continue to fund our working with partner companies for all of these but pretty much ever publisher said, ‘Well, it would be worth much more to us if you would grow your studio and do more of your own work internally. That's why we already started to staff up to do Doom 4 internally. So things were already moving in that direction."
"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."
- From By Schism Rent Asunder
