The issue is that if the consoles do split, the gamers benefit only with cheap multi-plats that aren't talor made for their systems.
I think the major resemblance is the SNES/Genesis years: Unlike now, the companies could support both platforms and do well. Sega had some brilliant games, and so did Nintendo. There were 3rd parties on both sides and easily put out the most innovative games of any generation.
If it goes 33% this time, devs will just support all forms and we really won't see any blockbuster games that are unique to a system. I really want the 360 to do well because I think it can do things the Wii can't do (graphically) and the PS3 can't do (online-wise). If the Wii does good, then devs will make more use of the controller than they would with just cheap multi-plats that they really don't care about the controller. If PS3 wins, then devs will make full use of the BR-DVD and we'll get magnificent quality for imagery. The more sales they get from a single system allows more resources on that version of the platform. Look at Fight Night Round 3. EA did a spectactular job on it for 360 - because they wanted to make it great, and they will end up selling near 1m copies of it.
So when one system wins, the owners win as they get higher quality 3rd party titles. I think the race will be close enough to where we see alot of battling from the 1st party games that we get alot of fun titles, while there's just enough difference to see a few unique 3rd party games either favoring the Wii or the 360/PS3.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
