WereKitten said:
@dib8rman What I can't accept in his stance ("disruption happened as soon as the Wii was introduced") is that the real disruption described in books (I only read "the innovator's dilemma", maybe the formulation changed in following works) is not an event, it is a process. The very first and most famous chart in that book has time as the X axis!
Introducing a novel idea to tap into a different, "lower end" market is not it. That's simply market segmentation or layering, or whatever the correct business term is :) The disruption process should imply that with time this new solution satisfies more and more layers, and that's what I can't see happening (yet?).
Which brings me to...
@Avinash "the core is slowly being conquered" implies it is happening in the present, or happened in the immediate past. All your examples point to future lineups, future games, future possible shifts.
Do we have any statistical evidence of a userbase that was captured to the "new games" through the simplest ones and then moved to "new" RPGs, or action-adventures, or strategic games? Because my grandma read cheap mystery books all her life long. It was great for her, coming from an age when most country girls could not even read. She read thousands of them, but she never moved to Flaubert or essays.
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Mario Kart, a lot of downstream gamers moved into this game because of the Wii wheel, so much so that Microsoft is trying to replicate its own version with the NATAL, that's all the proof that is needed
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)