^^ Interesting, Calamity. I do think there is some limited uncertainty about XIV online's sales, but I think it will be huge in Japan and very big elsewhere and that SE will apply plenty of lessons learned in XI. I know many people for whom this game will be more of a definite purchase than a single-player game.
And while an exclusive FF in 2012 would be big, I think we must consider that PS3 sales in Japan are still quite low, and goosing those sales significantly in 2010 would have a large positive effect. (XIII and GT5 will do this, anyway, but the more the merrier). Addidional games will be sold between 2010 and 2012 after a consumer decides to go for XIV online, etc. More people may even jump on XIII knowing that XIV is following soon after.
I consider PS3's potential to get MMO's very important and under-utilized, and I don't know why after WoW, other MMO's aren't supposed to be valuable. It's almost like betting 360 would fail just because the PS2 was already out. If you predict XIV won't have the same sales as XI, I counter-predict and say it will have more. The HD console that people WANT JRPGs and SE titles to come out on, PS3, has had precious little of them, and demand is certainly there.
As for XI, I think SE said it'll continue and that achievements within XI can translate somehow into XIV. XI will be heavily cannibalized, though.
2012 sounds good as an estimate for PS3 passing 360, though I doubt a single player FF will come until 2013, and may not be exclusive. FFXV maybe PS3/NeXtBox multiplat.
