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CAL4M1TY on 14 June 2009
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Well at the rate it's going, I don't expect the PS3 to catch 360 for overall sales at least until end of 2010 or during 2011. It would be unlikely that the PS3 outsells the 360 by at least 8 million in any year AND it would obviously have to match the sales for the year it does as well (which, being pessimistic, means at least 6 million). Obviously that means it won't happen over 1 year, and it hasn't even started yet (360 still outselling PS3 in most weeks recently). So, it'll require an extended period (especially if Sony doesn't want to waste precious money on price drops any time soon).

Where am I going with this? I believe that come late 2010 or during 2011, the PS3 will be within striking distance of the 360. Potentially surpassing it by the end of 2011 (Though chances of it doing it and not doing it are almost identical imo). Now, OP assumed that a single player FF (so 14 if it was SP) until at least 2012.

By that stage it'll be (I hope, for competition sake) an all out war between the 360 and PS3 to take a strong lead (for 2nd place). At this time, a Final Fantasy main series game, exclusive to either platform would be monstorous. Even without exclusivity, given FF's appeal in Japan, this would be a massive ace up the sleeve of the PS3. It won't be what turns the tide to the PS3's favour (if my prediction is correct), instead it'll be the Sony's silver bullet to the 360. It will extend the lead of the PS3 at that point, potentially making a gap that can never be made up (with the generation running out of steam and all at that point).

Also, given the state of MMO's in the post-WoW era, I don't expect any MMO to be a massive bonus for any console. Remember, FF11 was around 2 years before WoW. So taking that into account, it was able to establish a loyal fanbase and keep a certain amount of people due to their investment into their characters. In the post-WoW era, I doubt it can reach the same success, especially given the fact that Blizzard seems to be churning out expansions like clockwork. If they don't launch a new one this year, they will most certainly launch one next year, how can anything MMO or even PC related compete with that?

I'm not to sure how FFXI and FFXIV will coexist (can you transfer your characters over or are they two separate worlds?), how many do you think will move over to FFXIV, especially if FFXI continues? and how many would prefer the PC version over the PS3 (or even 360, if it exists)?