| NJ5 said: 1- USA debt is still too high so no problems have been solved. The USA government is just postponing the time bomb (as politicians like to do). 2- Interest rates are going up despite the gov's efforts, which will drive house prices even lower. 3- The banks are still under capitalized. Remember those "stress tests" that they did? They assumed a worst case of 9 something % unemployment, it's already more than that and still going up. This is nowhere near over. The news channels are trying to paint a rosy picture but it's just the same old BS. |
1) The dollar is actually deflating right now. The dollar hasn't deflated in over 50 years. Inflation is measured by the consumer price index typically. The talk about inflation is completely overblown (at least in the short run). In the long term we definitely do need to address the national debt, although you could make a strong argument that somewhat higher inflation would actually be a good thing.
| June 12, 2009 (Close of Day) | |
|
Indicator |
Value |
| Inflation % | -0.62 |
| GDP Growth % | -0.90 |
| Unemployment % | 9.40 |
| Gold $/oz | 937.25 |
| Oil $/bbl | 72.04 |
| Prime % | 3.25 |
http://forecasts.org/inflation.htm
U.S. Inflation Rate Forecast
Year Over Year Change in Consumer Price Index Percent
| Month | Date | Forecast Value |
50% Correct +/- |
80% Correct +/- |
| 0 | Apr 2009 | -0.62 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | May 2009 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | Jun 2009 | -1.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | Jul 2009 | -2.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| 4 | Aug 2009 | -2.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 5 | Sep 2009 | -2.1 | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 6 | Oct 2009 | -1.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| 7 | Nov 2009 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| 8 | Dec 2009 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.6 |
http://www.shadowstats.com/charts_republish#cpi
2) Interest rates going up is actually a sign that the economy is recovering. People are putting their money into higher risk investments (like the stock market), which shows that the markets are less volatile than they have been. Government bonds are considered the "safest" of all types of investments. I think it is a good sign that the interest rates on bonds are normalizing. Low interest rates are one of the reasons why we got into this recession in the first place.
3) The Fed has determined that the banks are in a good enough position to start paying back some of the TARP money. You are overestimating how bad the banking system's situation actually is. Their performance has actually been incredibly good compared to most people's expectations. And their capital reserves have substantially increased.
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
