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Still think that it's going to be a tier-based one (the price cut).

This is a possibility imho: A small price cut, ride it out until the sales dwindle, then hope for pickups with a bundle with FF XIII and possibly GT 5, ride that one out and then place the Slim in line, ride that one out and then drop the price a bit again for the slim. All of those would cause surges in sales without causing too much of a "slit your wrist"-move I think.

Dropping 100 and then still factoring in all the possible spikes from FF XIII, GT 5 and a Slim would be insanity.