The Official May 2009 NPD Thread (Data at 6:30 PM EST)

[Ail]

TheSource said:

I don't know if the Wii will last as long as the PS2 did in the USA market place, but the highest 12 month peak for Wii to date, i.e. March 2008 to February 2009 came in about 25% higher than the PS2 12 month peak in the immediate aftermath of the drop to $200 in the May 2002 to April 2003. Its something like 8.7m vs. 10.9m by NPD figures if you look them up. DS in the June 2008 to May 2009 12 month period is at 10.9m as well by NPD.

By calendar year PS2 did over 20m units in its best three year period. I'm pretty sure it was 2002 to 2004. So thats ~20 million PS2s in its peak three period in the USA (36 months). To date Wii has been on sale about 31 months in the USA...and its over 20m. Even if Wii only did 200,000/month for June to October that means it matched the PS2 peak three year period at a higher price point ($250 vs $200 for every month except for Jan-May 2002). Here is the thing though: if you compared the first full three calendar years for Wii, it should come in at least 26 million. We don't even know if 2007-2009 is the three year Wii peak yet.

Since E3 I've been expecting a Wii price cut in the USA in Spring 2010. If they do that Wii could do another 7-11m in 2010 in the USA.

Right now for Wii I'd wager this is still possible:

2006 - 1.1m

2007 - 6.2m

2008 - 10.15m

2009 ~ 10.5m (2D Mario Game Audience is enormous, enough interesting projects to maintain momentum, no Dec supply issues for once)

2010 ~ 9m ($50 to $80 price cut offset by Natal/PS3 Motion tech and ~$150-$250 360 skus, and $250 PS3)

2011 ~ 6.5m (360 down to $100-$200, Wii down to $130, PS3 down to $200)

2012 ~ 4m (PS4 or 720 launches in Nov, Wii 2 launches Nov)

2013 ~  2m (PS4 or 720 launches)

2014 ~ 800k (Nintendo stops making Wii)

 

To me, thats 50m Wiis in seven years and the launch window in 2006. For PS2 even though I have to check on some of the numbers, and I'm estimating for the end, I would say even with a longer duration on the market it probably will be beaten by Wii because the peak demand will be much higher even though it will likely be supported for a shorter amount of time. I mean even DS is ahead of PS2 pace now by over 1m, and Nintendo has not cut price on that thing. Wii is ahead of PS2 by several million without a price cut, and at a higher price point, and more importantly it has already had a higher peak.

          PS2        Wii

2000 ~ 1m /  2006 1.1m

2001 ~ 6m / 2007 6.3m

2002 ~ 8m / 2008 10.15m

2003 ~ 6m / 2009 ~ 10.5m? (8.5m to 12.5m is the realistic range I'd wager)

2004 ~ 5m / 2010 ~ 9m (7-11m realistic)

2005 ~ 5.5m / 2011 ~ 6.5m (5-8m realistic)

2006 - 4.7m / 2012 ~ 4m (2.5m to 5.5m realistic)

2007 - 3.9m / 2013 ~ 2m (1-3m realistic)

2008 - 2.5m / 2014 ~ 800k (500k-1m realistic)

2009 - 1.6m

2010 - 900k

2011 - 200k

 

I think in NA the Wii still has a small shot at hitting the PS2 numbers, worldwide however it looks a lot harder...

Maybe I am pessimistic but I don't see Natal or the PS3 motion thingy actually having much impact on those systems sales.

This looks more like PR than stuff that could actually be implemented quickly on the top selling franchises of thoses consoles...