What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

[davygee]

W29 said:
@davygee

Your expectations for the PS3 are really high!! I was expecting the PS3 to do something like 50 million and 360 close behind it or in front.

These are the high expectation levels going by my chart.  If you look at the chart, you can see that the Wii has brilliant years in 2007/2008/2009 and starts to tail off in 2010.  In 2011 there isn't much movement as it has reached the end of it's lifespan IMHO, so see the Wii having effectively a 4 year lifepan as the last year see's sales slowly racking up due to a really low price point.

I see 2008 and especially 2009 being special years for the PS3.  I can honestly seem sales going through the roof and be on a par with the Wii during those years.  78m is the maximum, although 60m is much more realistic IMHO.

The 360, unfortunately, I can't see much happening with it.  It's lifespan will expire in 2010 after effectively 4-5 years.  Sales have been very low with the 360 this year and I just see sales being similarly or slightly less.

Also, if you look at the chart...you can see that if both the PS3 and 360 reach their peaks in my opinion, their sales numbers will be equal come the end of 2008 around the 25m mark, although I doubt the PS3 and the 360 will be there around 25m at the end of 2008...more than likely closer to 20m than 25m.

I will create a chart with my predicted numbers (not highest approx.) for each system.