Million said: Nothing leads me to believe that it is guaranteed but alot of things lead me to believe it is probable. (1) They are the underdogs (2) Nintendo has a established a new market. (3) They desire that market and will work towards obtaining it. (4) They have resources and will make use of them to achieving (3).
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I look at things a little differently ...
Throughout the entire previous generation, Sony and Microsoft were growing more and more focused on targeting the "Hardcore" demographic under the assumption that the more "Hardcore" a system becomes the more popular it will be. As a result of this, they largely ignored and took for granted the broader demographic of gamers. Nintendo’s release of the Wii was designed to target these gamers.
Nintendo's success was quick and easy because there was almost no fight for these gamers from Sony or Microsoft ... Stealing these gamers away from Nintendo is (at this point in time) about as easy as stealing the "Hardcore" gamers away from Sony and Microsoft. The gamers know the brand are happy with the brand and the company who controls their demographic is not going to give up an inch without a fight.