| Squilliam said: At this point there are only possibilities, the future is not set. The status quo is no longer obvious, one cannot simply go on believing that things will progress the same as they have in the past as all three players are practicing a divergent strategy. Any assumptions that things will stay as they are are now definately false. |
What the? Aren't you contradicting yourself here? I actually think the most likely scenario is things will stay as they are now. Sony's wands and Microsoft's Natal will not take off, which will lead to the above conclusion.
I think people are getting carried away with technology. Sure, the Natal concept is nice, and improved motion control sounds great. However, what are Sony / Microsoft going to do with it?
Remember, people bought the Wii for its games. They're buying it for Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart, etc. The expanded audience, such as women, play and enjoy these games. Can Sony or Microsoft create games that can capture this audience with their new tech? They have never been able to in the past, and they haven't shown anything convincing otherwise at E3.
Nintendo also has a massive advantage here - with games like Wii Sports Resort, Motion+ will quickly build up a large install base. It feels like a natural progression, as the peripheral is a small attachment (like the nunchuck). Nintendo has every reason to support it as much as possible, since they can assume many people will be buying it.
On the other hand, Sony and Microsoft will need to build up their install base from the ground up. Gamers only interested in buying Call of Duty 7, Halo 4, Gears 3, GT5, etc will have no incentive to adopt motion. The motion controlled games will be based on entirely seperate platforms - the motion solution is not an addition to the current controllers, but a replacement. Third parties will not fully support it until it has proven itself, so the job of selling systems falls entirely on first/second parties (or MS paying third parties).
I imagine support for the Sony wand will be something like their Eyetoy, which isn't significant. As for Natal, I can't see it taking off at all - it'll cost too much, it won't offer enough practical use, and it will lack games.
Things may change when the next round of consoles come, but until then, the current positions of Ninty / Sony / MS will not change. Perhaps this is all in preparation for future consoles, but otherwise I do not think this tacked on motion is a good idea, as it will not help the 360 or PS3.
Btw, did you mix up the eastern / western fronts? (Or am I missing something?)
